As we approach the peak holiday season and look ahead to 2025, businesses across the physical economy face several challenges and opportunities. From heightened road risk to supply chain disruption, the pressure is on for fleet managers, safety leaders, and business owners to optimize their fleet management and overcome pressure during this critical time.
The Motive Holiday Outlook Report offers valuable data-driven predictions to guide physical economy leaders through the complexities of the holiday season and prepare them for what lies ahead. This comprehensive report focuses on the State of Safety, Retail, Freight, and Theft and Fraud, giving business leaders the insight they need to make the best decisions at a most critical time. Keep reading for the report’s key highlights.
The State of Safety: Managing holiday road risk
The holiday season is synonymous with joy, celebration, and family gatherings. However, it also brings significant challenges, especially for fleet-based businesses. This time of year, drivers face tighter delivery deadlines, increased traffic congestion, and deteriorating weather conditions, increasing the risk of accidents.
Key Insight: Collision risks spike before Christmas
According to Motive’s 2023 Holiday Outlook Report, there’s a 10% increase in speeding events leading up to Christmas, culminating in a 32% spike in crashes on Christmas Day compared to the rest of December. Hazardous weather is a major factor, with 65.5% of Christmas Day crashes occurring on wet, snowy, or icy roads.
Additionally, 47% of collisions occur after dark, despite more vehicles being on the road during daylight hours. Holiday season pressures lead to a spike in hours-of-service violations as drivers push themselves to meet high demand under tight deadlines.
The State of Retail: Adapting to constant disruption
The retail landscape has been significantly impacted by supply chain disruption over the past few years, and 2024 is no different. Retailers are under immense pressure to meet holiday demand while navigating long-term bottlenecks and unpredictable weather conditions.
Key insight: Early restocking drives stability
In response to these challenges, retailers have shifted away from the traditional just-in-time restocking model. Instead, they’ve prioritized building inventory earlier in the year. For example, Chinese imports surged by 19.7% year-over-year by mid-summer, showing that businesses are willing to invest more to meet consumer demand and avoid stockouts.
Mexico has emerged as another critical player in the global supply chain. Mexican imports through the Port of Laredo increased by 30% year-over-year. By sourcing from both China and Mexico, retailers can better manage lead times and mitigate the risks associated with supply chain disruption.
The State of Freight: Slow recovery with signs of optimism
The trucking industry has faced a turbulent year, but there are signs of cautious optimism heading into 2025. Freight rates have stagnated, and many small carriers have exited the market due to low profitability, but the market is expected to recover gradually.
Key insight: Moderate growth expected by 2025
While 1,300 operators exited the market in September for the third straight month, long-term growth trends are expected to return by the end of 2025, with a 5.7% year-over-year increase projected. The oversupply of carriers from the pandemic era is slowly correcting itself, which should help stabilize freight prices.
The State of Theft and Fraud: Escalating risks during the holidays
As businesses gear up for the holiday season, they should be prepared for a rise in theft and fraud. The Motive Holiday Outlook Report highlights significant spikes in cargo theft and credit card fraud during this period.
Key insight: Cargo theft surges by 49%
Cargo theft surged by 49% in the first half of 2024, and the holiday season is expected to worsen this trend. Many incidents occur at unsecured facilities or when trucks are left unattended during delivery. The average loss per cargo theft incident is $121,473, a significant financial burden for businesses.
Companies are increasingly using real-time tracking technology and AI-powered security systems to combat this trend. Tools like these provide instant alerts that allow businesses to track vehicles and goods in real time and recover stolen items quickly.
Looking ahead: Preparing for 2025 and beyond
The 2024 holiday season will be defined by rising safety concerns, evolving retail trends, and freight market challenges. Businesses that embrace advanced technologies like AI-powered dash cams, 360° cameras, and real-time tracking tools will be better equipped to navigate the risks and thrive in an unpredictable environment.
Is your business ready for the holiday rush? Download the Motive Holiday Outlook Report to see our predictions for the holiday season and beyond.
